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JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEK
Published Date 4/13/2017
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates are moving sideways so far today. The MBS market improved by +32 bps yesterday. This was enough to improve mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday afternoon.
TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Inflation: No inflation according to the Purchase Price Index readings for March. The headline reading fell -0.1% vs est of 0.0% and the Core PPI monthly reading came in at 0.0% vs est of 0.2%. The Core YOY reading did increase from Feb’s pace (1.6% vs 1.5%) but it below forecasts of 1.8%. Tomorrow’s Core CPI reading commands more attention, but the bond market will be closed.
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower (better) than expected (234K vs est of 245K). The more closely watched 4-week moving average fell from 250,250 down to 247,250.
Consumer Sentiment: The Prelim April UofM reading was much stronger than expected (98 vs est of 96.6). A solid reading but not a major factor for mortgage rates.
China: Both Imports and Exports were stronger than expected. March Exports jumped 16.4% vs est of 3.2%, and Imports increased by 20.3% vs est of 18.0%.
TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: AVERAGE
Headed into the long weekend and markets closing early today, we don’t expect mortgage rates to make a big move after yesterday’s drop in rates.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
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