skip to Main Content
(847) 832-1800 info@infinitiloans.com NMLS: 231718

Daily Mortgage Market Overview

POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN HELPING TO KEEP MORTGAGE RATES IN CHECK

___

          

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY

HOW RATES MOVE:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL

Mortgage rates are moving sideways so far today.  The MBS market imrpoved by  +22 bps yesterday. This was may’ve been enough to improve mortgage rates or fees.   The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL

Pending Sales: Were a little better than expected for March, falling -0.8% vs a larger pull backed expected of -1.0%.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 257K vs est of 241K. The more closely watched 4-week moving average dropped from 242,750 down to 242,250, so the trend line is still very low.

Durable Goods: This report has been all over the place, and we get another mixed reading. The March headline reading missed expectations (0.7% vs est of 1.2%), but more than offsetting that is the upward revision to Feb from 1.7% to 2.3%. Same story when you strip out Transportation. It missed with a reading of -0.2% vs est of 0.4%, but Feb was revised upward from 0.4% to 0.7%.

Treasury: Today, we have our 7-year note auction.

Geopolitical: Now that we have an “outline” of a tax plan, the market is focused on the potential of a government shutdown on Saturday. President Trump tweeted this morning “The Democrats want to shut government if we don’t bail out Puerto Rico and give billions to their insurance companies for OCare failure. NO!”

Japan: The Bank of Japan left their key interest rate unchanged at -0.1%. While there were no new monetary policy changes, they did move their economic outlook upward towards more growth than expected.

ECB: The European Central Bank kept their key interest rate at 0.0%, their deposit rate at -0.4%, and stuck with its monthly rate of asset purchases until at least the end of the year. Europe’s central bank is set to proceed at a monthly pace of quantitative easing (QE) bond purchases of 60 billion euros ($65.5 billion). It was widely expected that they would stand pat ahead of the French elections.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

While mortgage rates have moved up over the week, they continue to be historically extremely low.  The potential of the government shutdown and falling oil prices are helping to keep mortgage rates low.  We don’t expect a lot of volatility or a significant move to the upside for mortgage rates.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Licensed by IDFPR

Equal Housing

Back To Top
Translate »