MORTGAGE RATES FLAT AS TENSIONS OVERSEAS GROW

___

Published Date 4/11/2017

---

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY

HOW RATES MOVE:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: LOWER

Mortgage rates are trending lower this morning.  Yesterday the MBS market improved by +7 bps.  This was not enough to improve mortgage rates or fees.  Mortgage rates continued to trade in very narrow channel with relatively low volatility.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL

Jobs: The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a massive amount of jobs that were unfilled.  5.743M jobs which was much higher than expectations of 5.625M.

Small Business Optimism: The NFIB Index for March came in at 104.7 vs est of 104.8, so basically in line with estimates and at a very high level.

Treasury auction: Today we have an important 10-year note auction at 1:00 AM EST.

Japan (number 3 economy): Machine Tool Orders jumped by 22.6% YOY vs. Feb’s level of 9.1%.

Germany (number 4 economy): April Economic Sentiment was higher than expected (19.5 vs. est of 14.0).

Great Britian (number 5 economy): Retail Prices rose 0.3% vs est of 0.4%. PPI hit 0.4% vs. est. of -0.2% and CPI hit 0.4% vs est. of 0.3%.

France (number 6 economy): The recent surge in far-left candidate Melenchon has changed the French presidential election calculus materially in recent days, sending a lot of foreign money into U.S. bonds.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

France’s potential exit from the EU and the tensions with Russia are helping to support the MBS market (low rates).  This is keeping mortgage rates very flat at these historically low levels.  We don’t see anything coming out today to cause mortgage rates to move significantly in either direction.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Licensed by IDFPR